September 23, 2022 By Vaseline

The National Weather Service expects October to be warmer and drier

The National Weather Service predicts that October — and the last three months of 2022 — will bring above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for Wyoming.

The National Weather Service Office in Riverton released the latest report from the agency’s Climate Prediction Center. According to the report, October 2022 looks more like summer than fall.

Most of the continental United States will experience above-average temperatures throughout October. Additionally, higher temperatures mean lower rainfall for the Great Plains and Wyoming region.

Courtesy of the National Weather Service

Climate forecasts show that October temperatures in Wyoming will be between 30% and 60% warmer than usual.

Temperature ranges vary by state. However, the general pattern is that the further south one goes, the warmer the month is expected to be.

Unfortunately, higher temperatures mean drier weather. As a result, the Climate Prediction Center expects 30 to 40% less precipitation in the far north (including Yellowstone National Park and Bighorn Basin).

40-50% less rainfall is expected in southern Wyoming in October 2022.

The Climate Prediction Center also has a three-month outlook for the United States. This forecast is slightly better – above average temperatures and either average or below average rainfall for October, November and December.

However, the good news is that this pattern should not continue into the winter season. At least in the Bighorn Basin it will be wintry in 2023.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a colder, snowier winter for Wyoming. And that prediction doesn’t conflict with that of the Climate Prediction Center, as most of the winter weather is expected from late December to early March.

Based on regional maps, the Bighorn Basin sits right on the line between an above-average and below-average snow season.

The Texas-Oklahoma region is forecast for a colder-than-normal winter, “with the coldest periods in early to mid-January and early to mid-February.” However, rainfall will be below average, with the best chances of snow in mid to late January and early February.

Incidentally, a colder than normal winter is also forecast for the High Plains region. The coldest periods are late November, early December, early January and early and late February.

However, precipitation and snowfall will be above normal in the north and below normal in the south. The snowiest periods are mid to late November, mid to late January and early February.

Fortunately, there is a caveat. While less snow is forecast for the Texas-Oklahoma region overall, “snowfall will be above average in the north.” That, it seems, balances everything.

A likely interpretation of the confusing regional forecasts is that the Bighorn Basin will experience a colder-than-average winter with average — possibly above-average — snowfall.

Bighorn Basin Winter Forecast Is Colder Than Normal — But What About Snow?